13. Atlanta Hawks

Here's what we know about the Atlanta Hawks: 

-Last season the Hawks went 53-29 finishing as the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference. To put it in perspective, this is 3 wins better than the Celtics and only 4 behind the Lakers

-Their season ended with an embarrassing 4-0 sweep to the Orlando Magic where they lost by an average of 25.25 ppg including a 30 point loss on their home court. This was after barely winning a 7 game series with the 6 seed Milwaukee Bucks. 

-Joe Johnson insulted the home fans during the Magic series to which the Hawks rewarded his comments with a 6 year 119 million dollar contract. To put this in perspective, this is 9 million more than LeBron's new contract and 12 million more than D-Wade's. 

-The Hawks still play in the Southeast division which is by far the best division of the East (last season 4 of the 5 teams made the playoffs) 

-Josh Smith is better than we give him credit for, but is also close to being overrated (let that statement soak)

So here's why I see the Hawks dropping next season. First of all, their division got stronger. If the Hawks played in the place of Boston in the Atlantic, they would probably go 14-2, but instead they play in the Atlantic. I don't see how they will win any games against Orlando who has gotten better since last season and was already 25.25 ppg better than the Hawks. The Miami Heat may have slightly improved too and even when it was just D-Wade the Hawks went 1-3 against the Hawks. No wins against the Heat. I see them splitting with the Bobcats and losing one to a Wizards team on a hot night behind Wall and Arenas in D.C. Instead of 14-2 their division record will be 3-13. That 11 win difference alone is the difference between being the 13th team in the NBA versus being a top seed. 

But the Hawks are the first team I've ranked so far that could actually make it into the second round of the playoffs. However, this is their maximum destination. I see the Hawks being knocked out by either the Celtics, Magic, or Bulls in the first round of the playoffs and then going into the offseason in search of a point guard and another big. Here's how the Hawks look: 

Mike Bibby

Still haven't forgiven what he did to my Jayhawks in the '97 tournament. Therefore I have nothing to say about Mike Bibby. 

Joe Johnson

I'm going to go ahead and defend Joe Johnson, not 119 million dollars worth of defense, but maybe 85. First off, there is only one Joe Johnson in my mind and that was the legend who graduated with me from Midland High, (Fast forward to William Wallace scene  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuwLv6a0REE) so name alone gives the NBA Joe Johnson a strike. But after that, I think he ranks rather high in terms of shooting guards in the league. The top three is obviously (in order) Kobe, D-Wade, Brandon Roy, but moving to number four I feel like you almost have to put Joe Johnson. A case could be made for a healthy Manu Ginobli or Ray Allen when he's hot, but in terms of who do you go out and sign for the next six years I think Johnson is number four. 

Now does this justify 119 million? No, I think the free agent market would have only gone to 90 on him maybe 100 from a desperate New Jersey team so I personally think they overspent. But locking down a top shooting guard is actually incredibly smart way to build a championship level team. I'm going to use this example again in the Heat column, so forgive the repitition (no idea how to actually spell that word and have too much pride to use spell check on it) but if you look at the championship teams since Jordan (including Jordan) championships have been won by either dominant big men or shooting guards or a combination of the two. Jordan's Bulls, Hakeem's Rockets, Shaq and Kobe's Lakers, a strange Pistons team who had strong points at all positions, Duncan and Ginobli's Spurs, D-Wade and Shaq's Heat, and now the Lakers (I left out the Celtics because I will explain later how they are the only team who can win championships with a star small forward) who are led by Kobe and now emerging big man Pau Gasol. Building around a shooting guard is how teams have been winning for the last 20 + years, is Joe Johnson the guy? Eh, maybe, but he does play the right position. 

Marvin Williams/Josh Smith as Hybrid Forwards

Marvin Williams I really have no insight on but Josh Smith I think is a really impressive player. After LeBron, Smith's dunks are the next ones on the list that make me jump out of my seat, eyes and jaw dropping to the floor (third being the rare but unbelivably freakish Shannon Brown slams). I think Smith is also really hard to guard and is a good piece to build around alongside Johnson. 

Center Al Horford

In a perfect world he'd be playing power forward for this team and not center. Being in the same division as Dwight Howard for the next 15 years should probably make the Hawks invest in some brutes and allow Horford go up against Rashard Lewis. 

I really like this Hawks team, but think their division will prove to be too brutal for them to post anything more than a 48 win season. But Congratulations Hawks, you are legitimately the first team I've covered so far who's ceiling is beyond simply making the playoffs. 

P.S. the Mookie Blaylock/Dikembe era of the Hawks was one of my favorite obscure NBA teams growing up, I'd love to see them get back to that level.