Thursday, November 18, 2010

4. Orlando Magic


The difference between my number one point guard Rajon Rondo and number two Derron Williams? Here's a look at their 2009-2010 postseason numbers: 

Rondo: 15.8 ppg, 9.3 apg, 2.3 steals per game, 4.4 rpg
Williams: 24.3 ppg, 10.2 apg, 1 steal per game, 2.7 rpg

As you can see, a case can easily be made for Williams as the best point guard in the NBA. But then again why not put Steve Nash there? Or Chris Paul, or how about even Derrick Rose? The difference between the number one point guard in the NBA and the number five is hardly anything. 

How about the difference between the best shooting guard of the last 10 years and the number two guy. I'll let you pick which one of these stat lines is Kobe and which one is D-Wade. 

Shooting Guard A: 27.0 ppg, 5.0 apg, 5.4 rpg 
Shooting Guard B: 26.6 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.8 rpg

0.4 points per game separation, 1.6 apg, and 0.6 rebounds. Once again not much separation. Oh, shooting Guard A is Kobe by the way. 

And then how about small forward, try to figure out which one's which here between Durant, LeBron, and Melo. 

Small Forward A: 28.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 4.4 apg
Small Forward B: 29.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 7.3 apg
Small Forward C: 30.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.1 apg

(A=Melo, B=James, C= Durant) 

Power forward take your pick between Gasol, Amar'e, or Chris Bosh, a case could be made for all three of them as the top guy. 

And even active coaches, Phil has 11 rings, next in line Poppovich with 4, after that a list of guys with 1 title. 

But then you have the Center position. Here there is no debate whatsoever with who should be number one. Dwight Howard has a tighter grip on the number one center position than Usain Bolt does on being the world's fastest sprinter. No one is even close to Dwight's dominance right now. Brooke Lopez? Chris Kaman? Samuel Dalembert? These are the next guys in terms of points and rebounds and there is no possible case to be made that these guys are better franchise centers to start a team with.

There's a reason the Celtics brought in Shaquille and Jermaine O'Neal and there's a reason that after the Heat signed the three stars they went out and signed Big Z, Jamaal Magloire, Joel Anthony, Juwan Howard, Udonis Haslem, and drafted Dexter Pittman. Everyone in the East is loading up at the bigs to try and slow down Dwight Howard. Scary part is, Dwight is only getting better on offense and has the defensive side of the game mastered. 

It's easy to forget how good this Magic team is because of how the season ended last year. Two years ago they made it to the NBA Finals, last year to the Eastern Conference finals. You look at the first two rounds of last year's playoffs and they proved to be 30 points better than the Bobcats and Hawks. The Celtics series was a weird one to digest, because if you shifted the games around suddenly that series would have been right up there with ones like Lakers vs. Suns and Lakers vs. Thunder. Lakers vs. Thunder, 6 games, Lakers vs. Suns, 6 games, Celtics vs. Magic, 6 games. But because the Magic fell behind 3-0, the series still feels like it was a blow out. Game four the Magic proved they could win in Boston, game five they proved they could physically dominate Boston destroying Marquise Daniels, Rasheed Wallace, and made Big Baby Davis look like he was knocked out by Muhammed Ali (one of the best moments of the post-season was Doc Rivers yelling for Davis to get his ass up the court only to watch Davis nearly collapse over that one old bald ref). Switch that series around where Magic go up 1-0, tied 1-1, down 2-1, down 3-1, down 3-2, then finished 4-2, and people would be talking about them being right in the mix for an NBA title. 

Then there's this new Magic vs Heat feud/rivalry/hatred brewing. I absolutely love this. Look at some of the quotes already circulating between the teams: 

Magic GM Otis Smith had some not so flattering words for the King:
"I was surprised (James) went (from Cleveland to Miami). I thought he was, I guess, more of a competitor. … The great ones do and usually stay in one location.”

Stan Van Gundy, the Magic's head coach, commented on Chris Bosh's pre-signing activities with Wade that he was following him "around for two weeks like his lap dog."

Even the floor was sweating too much in anticipation for their pre-season game and the game had to be cancelled. The Heat play the Celtics and the Magic within the first 3 games and will get the best, extremely physical shot from both of them. I'm really looking forward to after all the "Will the Heat reach 72 wins!?" speculation turn into, "Trouble in Miami, should the Heat break up the Big 3!? Should Pat Riley come to the bench!?" after a 1-2 start. I can't wait to watch the MIami Orlando games, 4 in the regular season and potentially 7 more in the post season. 

Here's a look at Orlando's talented and even deeper roster for next season: 

Point Guard

   Jameer Nelson does very well but he puts the Magic at a disadvantage against Rondo of the Celtics and Rose of the Bulls. I will explain later on what I think they should to with this position, but for now Nelson will have to do. Having Chris Duhon as the backup is a great pickup and will have games during the season that make you wonder why he's not starting somewhere else. Also, Jason Williams (who is secretly a 12 year, 34 year old veteran) is still on the roster as the third string guy, but after being on the wrong side of the Rondo dive/steal hilight from the Eastern Conference finals, I expect his minutes to be limited.

Shooting Guard

   J.J. Redick is good enough to be the starting shooting guard for this team but they will go with Vince Carter (more on that later too). Carter still has game and Redick is continuing to improve both offensively and defensively. Resigning Redick for the amount the Magic did show their commitment to the former Duke star and I couldn't agree more with their decision. In the Eastern conference, he would start at shooting guard for 10 other teams and I think his time as starter for the Magic is within the next two years. 

Small Forward

   Defensively you go with Mickael Pietrus, offensively you go with Quentin Richardson at this spot. Pietrus is the crowd favorite, but "Q-Tip," part of the Richardson-Al Harrington-Corey Magette triple-headed same guy monster, can put together streaky performances to the tune of 20 points (followed by 4 point outings). Adding Q-Tip will make even more sense if they go through with my trade idea that once again I will get to later.

Power Forward

   Rashard Lewis is the second highest paid player in the NBA. Yes, I couldn't believe it either, but it's true. And yet he finds himself playing the wrong position. I get the whole idea of four guards that can shoot the three surrounding the dominant Dwight Howard Centerpiece, but I think Lewis is making way too much money not to be out on the wing full time. I would suggest starting Brandon Bass, an untapped resource, to give the Magic by far the most physical frontcourt and slide Lewis out to the wing. Lewis's low stats against the Celtics are also a concern, but I'm willing to give him the Joe Johnson playoff fluke benefit of the doubt. And once again, the Magic go even deeper than two strings with Ryan Anderson, a career 7-8 ppg game guy, and Daniel Orton the lesser talked about piece of the talented freshmen core of Kentucky last season. At only 20 years old, 6'9 270 with a 7'4 wingspan, Orton could find his way into the rotation in a couple years. 

Center

   Not much more to say here except for the fact that backing up Dwight Howard is a guy who could go and sign for Darko Milicic money on any other team in the league. Marcin Gortat might be the best backup center in the league (Shaq possibly being the exception) and he's backing up the clearly best center in Howard. The playing time actually works out since Howard often picks up fouls so Gortat still sees about 14 minutes a night. In those 14 minutes he gets about 4 points and 4 rebounds, which sounds small but say that were 30 minutes and you're looking at a 10 and 10 guy. 

    Basically the Magic are loaded when it comes to depth. Best one player in the league, Lakers. Best tandem in the league, Heat. Best three-guy team (Best threesome in the league just looked weird), Heat. Best four-guy team, Celtics. Best starting five, Lakers. Best 1-12, Orlando. No coach in the NBA can have more confidence with his bench than Van Gundy has in Orlando. Problem is, they don't have that second superstar to compliment Howard. You can have the best bench, but basketball is not an 11 player on the field at once type of sport. However, I've said this before and I'll map it out again, there is a trade in place that could catapult the Magic to the #1 team in the NBA. 

    Trade Vince Carter (17,300,000 contract), and Jameer Nelson (6,722,222) for Chris Paul (15,000,000). 

    There is no way Chris Paul can win too many games this year with a supporting cast of Ariza, Okafor, David West, and ......? He doesn't want to demand a trade, but I know deep down he wants out. The Knicks won't be able to maneuver it financially and I think they will go with the pursue Tony Parker approach pairing Parker, Melo, and Amar'e together with emerging star Gallinari to form an incredibly dangerous but possibly overhyped grouping out in Madison Square. Paul wants to win and he can do so in Orlando. As for New Orleans, they get Carter's expiring contract and a solid, all-star level point guard in Nelson to replace the departing Paul. By 2012 Peja and Carter's contracts will be off the books and the Hornets can begin rebuilding. Then for the Magic they will have something that no other team in the NBA has, a superstar point guard paired with a superstar center. In fact, very few teams in the history of the NBA have had this pairing. Magic and Kareem? Cousy and Russell? The point guard/power forward is common, the superstar shooting guard and star big man is common, but a pairing of a top 3 point guard with the top 1 center surrounded by lights out shooting would be incredibly dangerous to play. 

    The problem is, the Magic are big believers in sticking with the team they have and are dangerously close to approaching Arby's Syndrome. Jameer Nelson means too much to the team and the community to ship him away. Vince Carter is still seen as a top five player in the league in the Magic front office's eyes. Rashard Lewis makes 20 + million a year. If the Magic want to stay atop the East and be on the winning side of the Heat rivalry I think they have to go out and get Chris Paul. Otherwise they will continue to be a 60 win caliber team that nearly wins titles. 

Magic vs. Heat, October 29, 8:00 p.m. Guarantee this will be a great game. 

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