I see no other way to analyze the finals than to go Player by Player, coach versus coach, bench vs bench, all matchup comparisons, home court, etc. and then throw in my two cents/gut feeling of what I think will happen. For those of you who are bored by this point my prediction is Celtics in 7 games. For those of you still interested let's start at point guards:
Rajon Rondo versus Derek Fisher
No one has been more of a surprise in the playoffs than Rajon Rondo. Rondo came into the playoffs hidden in the massive shadow of the Big 3 but now has emerged as arguably the best point guard in the league. Liking Rondo on Facebook has become as popular as putting B.O.B "Airplanes" lyrics in statuses; the difference is Rondo's actually good. Sure Fisher has done a pretty good job guarding Westbrook, Williams, and Nash in this year's playoffs and did well against John Stockton 30 years ago, but Rondo will be as fast if not faster than Westbrook while also being nearly as crafty with his passing as Steve Nash. I envision Fisher guarding Rondo like a Midland or Dow High player trying to guard one of Saginaw's point guards, just a whole lot of broken ankles and embarrassing clips for the Saginaw News at 11. I give the edge to Rondo. Boston 1-0.
Ray Allen versus Kobe Bryant
This discussion doesn't even need to be had. Sure Ray Allen has one of the prettiest shots in the history of the game and sure his mom is secretly pretty hot (Delonte West is salivating somewhere in Cleveland) but come on, no one is playing better right now than Kobe Bryant. When Kobe gave Alvin Gentry a complimentary butt tap after hitting the insanely difficult shot over Grant Hill and whoever else was guarding him down the stretch against the Suns, Gentry wasn't even upset. He, along with everyone else in that arena were in awe of a performance unseen since MJ. Kobe Bryant is beyond focused, he's got that Hannibal Lector lower jaw look going on, he's still furious about 2008, and seeing that Shaq will most likely retire with 4 rings, Kobe is determined to end up with at least one more than his former teammate (Not to mention 5 puts him at Magic Johnson, 6 puts him at MJ, 7... best to play the game levels?). Kobe over Allen. Tied 1-1.
Scary.
Paul Pierce versus Ron Artest
Paul Pierce and Ron Artest both have an extreme flare for the dramatic. Artest decided to flirt with costing the Lakers their season only to hit the buzzer beater heroic shot in game 5 over the Suns. Meanwhile Paul Pierce has been known to leave the court wheelchair bound only to return minutes later for theatric effect. Both have done things never seen before in Basketball, Artest going Mike Tyson at the Palace and Pierce dumping a Gatorade cooler on a basketball court. Neither one has the smoothness to their game like Kobe or Ray, but both at the end of the day may be what wins or loses the series for their team.
Will Ron Artest have another meltdown?
Right away I give the edge to Pierce, because Paul, as ugly as his moves can be sometimes, is still one of the top players of the last 15 years. Don't forget this guy is a Finals MVP only 2 years ago and still is capable of 30 point games. Problem is, he has not had success in his career going against Artest. Artest will battle him night in and night out and make things incredibly hard on Paul. At the end of the day I give the edge to the Twitter King himself, Paul Pierce. Boston 2-1.
Pau Gasol versus Kevin Garnett
As much as Pau Gasol has improved and as much as I want to believe in the hype that he's stronger and enraged at what Garnett did to him 2 years ago, I just don't buy it. Garnett is fresh off of Shaq and Howard in the last two series, meaning Gasol is going to seem like a runway model to what he has gone up against. Even saying that, I think Gasol will win one game for the Lakers by a gutsy performance (watch for it to be game 1 or 2). But I think ultimately Garnett's defense and toughness will win out. Boston 3-1.
Perkins/Sheed versus Bynum/Odom
I put these two players together for both teams because Perkins always has foul trouble and is one technical away from sitting out a game and Bynum/Odom split the minutes anyways.
Quick side note, MLB should learn a thing or two from the NBA regarding officiating and how to properly handle the Armando Galarraga's perfect game situation. Umpire egos are spiraling out of control and Jim Joyce, not to be confused with the more famous author James Joyce, has Tigers fans crying out, "history is a nightmare from which I am trying to awake" (obscure Ulysses reference, just let it go).
James Joyce would have called him out!
But seriously, the player was obviously out, Joyce has even admitted that he screwed up, it WAS the 27th out, go back and change the call like the NBA did in reversing Perkins's 7th Technical foul. Otherwise (keeping the Celtics tied into this) Galarraga can only hope that Randy Johnson or some other former great might make him an offer to share their perfect game with him a la Bill Russell Kevin Garnett.
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcllf8sg3R0&feature=fvst>
(By the way, can we all agree after watching that clip maybe Bill Russell should have been casted as God instead of Morgan Freeman in Bruce Almighty?)
And to ride this baseball ego trip a little further, Kendrick Perkins is the Justin Morneau/Joe Mauer of Boston. Only Boston and Minnesota know how valuable those players are. Perkins, as the only starter not to get into the Big 4 club, is extremely valuable and is defensive lineman physical. However, I think he will at some point get that 7th technical foul and miss a game in the finals. Sheed is good off the bench, but Odom is a matchup nightmare for the Celtics to guard. I give the edge in this matchup to Bynum/Odom. Celtics 3-2.
Rest of the Bench
Tony Allen makes me wonder if he can be a legitimate starter for this team when Ray Allen retires, Glenn Davis makes me wonder how the hell he explodes for 17 points some games, and Marquis Daniels makes me wonder if he's Jar Jar Binks.
Jar Jar?
Then the smallest of the Celtics bench but arguably the most impactful player of the bunch is Nate Robinson. His offensive explosion in game 6 against the Magic showed more to me than Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown and hell throw in Luke Walton combined. Then after that the Lakers have DJ Mbenga (who I love, but come on) and then Sasha Vujacic who almost cost the Lakers game 6 by nearly going Zinedine Zidane on Goran Dragic.
You shoulda heard what the other guy said tho...
Soccer related Sidenote: Thank God the World Cup is coming up in a week, because the five or so days of this NBA drought with the only alternative sporting event being baseball and I guess hockey (is Versus pay-per-view?) I was feeling about as hopeless as a Cavalier fan watching Lebron highlights on Youtube.
Celtics bench isn't as good as '08 (Posey, House, PJ Brown, Cassell) but I still trust it over LA's. Boston 4-2.
Coaching
Both coaches are great, but this is like the Ray Allen versus Kobe comparison. Yes, Doc Rivers is an excellent coach, and yes he's beaten Phil before, but let's be honest here, if Phil wins this year, he'll have to start moving rings to his toes. Jackson versus Red Auerbach, that's a toss up, but Jackson versus anyone else, it goes Jackson. Celtics 4-3.
Honestly got this from a website titled: Jewishcoaches.com
Comparing the starters, the bench, and the coaches I have it going Celtics 4-3, which is why I'm taking the Celtics over the Lakers in 7 games. I think defensively the Celtics are too tough, I think judging by the Cavaliers series, the Celts were able to not necessarily shut down Lebron (besides the Delonte's sleeping with my mom game) but just as I don't think any team can shut down Kobe right now, but they were able to make everyone else a non factor. I look for the same situation to pan out against L.A.
Faults in my Reasoning?
1. Kobe. As good as the Jazz teams were that matched up against MJ in the late 90's, no one was stopping Jordan. Right now I think Kobe is looking the same way. With Artest guarding Pierce, Kobe will continue to be able to focus on offense and probably average 30 plus a game. Artest, Pau, Fisher, Odom play a factor in the Lakers winning a title, but only Kobe determines if it happens.
2. Home Court. I see the series splitting 1-1 in LA then going 2 to 1 Celtics in Boston. So then Boston comes back to L.A. up 3-2 and I think game 6 the Lakers feed off their crowd tying it up 3-3. Then it's hard for me to see Boston winning a game 7 in L.A. on Kobe's home court and in front of Jack. If Celtics had home court I woulda seen them going 2-0 then 1-2 coming back home to put it away again in game 6. But, with LA in control of home court (by the way they haven't lost at home) it makes things a whole lot harder for Boston.
3. Revenge Factor. In 2008 the Celtics had Allen, Pierce, Garnett all starving for an NBA title. I think the 10+ years of their hunger was too much for the Lakers and played a big part in the series. This time around the Lakers come in angry about '08 and the Celtics will have to find something to rally behind to match this intensity.
Final Thoughts
I think the one thing that can be assured is this will be a perfect series. I don't see how this can go less than 6 games and I really think whoever wins it wins it in 7. The history behind these two teams is unbelievable, the former players are hall of famers, and at least 4 of the current players in this series are hall of famers if not 6 (Rondo and Gasol). On top of this I think the major thing at stake here is who will be remembered as the dominant team of the last 3 years. If the Celtics win they can say, "Look, we won 2 titles in 2 years, we beat the Lakers both times, and the year in between we didn't have a healthy Garnett. The Lakers title over the Magic was a fluke." However, if the Lakers win they can say, "We won 2 titles in 2 years, the Celtics only won one, and as for the decade we won 5 of the 10."
This series will be the perfect game. Hopefully the referees aren't related to Joyce.
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